AGP Executive Report

US-Iran Energy Shock: A new analysis warns the Iran conflict is turning into a wider energy, shipping, fertilizer, food and financial drag that could linger into 2027 even if fighting cools. Global Conflict Trend: PRIO reports 65 state-based armed conflicts in 2025, with about 245,000 battle deaths, driven by Ukraine, Gaza and Sudan. Iran Deal Politics: As US and Iran near a possible ceasefire framework, Trump’s G7 agenda is being shaped by the risk of renewed regional disruption, including the Strait of Hormuz. North Africa Diplomacy: UN Sahara envoy de Mistura met US adviser Massad Boulos as calls grow to remove Western Sahara from the UN’s C24, arguing UNSC Resolution 2797 reframes it as a political autonomy dispute. Cross-Strait Messaging: China’s Wang Huning urged peaceful development and opposed separatism at the Straits Forum, reiterating “one China.” Ethiopia Elections & Tigray: Ethiopia’s president hailed the peaceful 7th general election as political maturity, while a Tigray interim official warned a TPLF faction could reignite conflict. Trade Uncertainty: Trump floated letting the USMCA expire, injecting fresh instability into Canada-Mexico talks. Africa Arms Control: FOSDA urged stronger action to stop diversion of small arms into illicit markets. Local Governance Watch: In Florida, residents questioned a school board plan to build a school in Alva over larger Lehigh Acres.

Middle East Shock to Global Economy: The World Bank cut its 2026 growth forecast to 2.5% as the Iran-linked conflict keeps energy prices high and tightens financial conditions, with knock-on effects expected into 2027. War and Fragmentation: A PRIO study says state-based armed conflicts hit 65 in 2025—the most since WWII—driven by Ukraine, Gaza and Sudan, with about 245,000 battle deaths. US-Iran Diplomacy: Reports say Washington and Tehran are nearing a framework deal, including reopening Hormuz shipping and easing sanctions, though key nuclear and political issues remain unresolved. North America Trade Politics: Trump floated letting the USMCA expire in 2036, injecting fresh uncertainty into talks with Canada and Mexico. South Asia Security & Governance: Pakistan’s budget raises defence spending while squeezing development to meet IMF goals; in India’s West Bengal, police searches at Abhishek Banerjee’s home and ED action tied to the TMC deepen political tensions. Human Rights Through Development: A former Iraqi president backed China’s “right to development” approach at a Beijing forum, reinforcing Beijing’s rights narrative. EU Enlargement: The EU is set to open accession negotiation clusters with Ukraine and Moldova, signaling renewed momentum despite timetable uncertainty.

Middle East Diplomacy: The US and Iran edged toward an interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but conflicting claims from Washington and Tehran—and even Pakistan’s announcement that a final text was reached—left the timeline murky. Global Conflict Trends: A PRIO study says state-based armed conflicts hit 65 in 2025, the highest since WWII, with about 245,000 battle deaths and wars increasingly overlapping. South Asia Security & Economy: Pakistan’s budget boosts defence spending while cutting development outlays to meet IMF targets, as regional uncertainty drives higher security costs. UK-Ireland Border Politics: Keir Starmer and Micheál Martin discussed strengthening the Common Travel Area’s “integrity and security” after a Belfast stabbing sparked renewed scrutiny of the century-old arrangement. EU Rights & Turkey: Türkiye warned of “politicisation” in the European human-rights system after Council of Europe talks revisited Cyprus property rights. Nepal Courts & Governance: Nepal’s Supreme Court ordered a law banning child recruitment in any military force, while also refusing interim relief in a case over dissolving civil-servant trade unions. Aviation Rules: The EU agreed updated air passenger rights, setting new limits on delay compensation claims. Trade & Alliances: Kazakhstan deepened ties with France and Canada, while Canada and France moved toward a defence and “general security of information” deal.

US-Iran Escalation and Diplomacy: Trump says a US-Iran peace deal could be signed “as soon as this weekend,” potentially reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran urges caution, saying no final decision is reached and “red lines” remain. Middle East Ceasefire Strain: Iran’s first direct strike on Israeli targets is reported as a major escalation that breaks a fragile US-brokered ceasefire framework. US Military Messaging: A separate report calls recent US Syria strikes “political theater,” arguing costly munitions hit cheap rural targets and raise questions about strategy and readiness. North Africa/Europe Migration Policy: Moldova approved talks with Tunisia to abolish visa requirements for certain passport holders, signaling a new push to ease travel and mobility. US Trade Politics: Trump warns the USMCA could expire in 2036 unless renewed, injecting uncertainty into Canada-Mexico talks. NATO Industry Push: Türkiye and Poland seek deeper defense industry ties, focusing on unmanned systems, technology transfer, and joint investment. South Asia Governance: Vietnam’s top leader stresses foreign affairs as central to development, while Vietnam-Germany talks aim to deepen cooperation across trade, defense-security, and technology. South Africa Party Fractures: West Bengal’s TMC faces a leadership rupture as rebel MLAs and MPs challenge Mamata Banerjee’s line, reshaping opposition dynamics.

US-Iran Tensions: Trump says he’s calling off renewed strikes against Iran as talks progress, while the naval blockade stays in place—oil prices fall on the announcement. Middle East Escalation: Iran’s first direct strike on Israeli targets signals a shift in deterrence after Israel hit third-party territory, raising fears the ceasefire framework is fraying. North America Trade: Trump hints USMCA could expire in 2036 unless renewed, injecting fresh uncertainty into Canada-Mexico talks as the World Cup begins. UK Defence Politics: Keir Starmer defends a defence investment plan after John Healey resigns over funding, keeping pressure on government priorities. AI Regulation Fight (US): Democrats split over how to regulate AI, with proposals ranging from bipartisan frameworks to sweeping limits. Venezuela Power Consolidation: Delcy Rodríguez strengthens military ties after talks with Turkey, underscoring the armed forces’ central role in political stability. Moldova-Tunisia Mobility: Moldova approves visa-free talks for diplomatic, service and special passport holders, aiming to deepen bilateral cooperation. Caribbean Coast Guard Funding: Dutch parties question the cost-sharing formula, potentially reshaping how Aruba, Curaçao and Sint Maarten fund maritime security. Africa Development & Identity: ID4Africa highlights “trusted identity systems” as a driver of economic participation and governance capacity. Congressional AI/Innovation: US lawmakers debate AI rules that could preempt state action, reflecting a wider struggle over innovation vs. safeguards.

Middle East Escalation: The US launched fresh strikes on Iran, targeting surveillance, communications and air-defence sites as Trump warned more attacks without a deal, while Iran retaliated and shipping fears returned. Diplomacy at the UN: India backed a two-state solution and called for a Gaza ceasefire, pledging $2.5m to UNRWA, and urged restraint after attacks on merchant shipping; China pressed for political solutions at a Security Council debate. South Asia Foreign Policy: Nepal’s FM Shisir Khanal briefed parliament after a visit to India and said he will soon go to China, stressing sovereignty and multi-dimensional diplomacy. EU Politics: Ireland welcomed EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos ahead of its Council Presidency, with the Tánaiste warning Middle East uncertainty could hit Europe’s growth and energy markets. India’s Opposition Turmoil: In West Bengal, TMC’s internal crisis deepened as MP Prakash Chik Baraik resigned from Rajya Sabha and rebels traded claims with Mahua Moitra, while Abhishek Banerjee met Rahul Gandhi amid merger speculation. Defense Industry: Germany’s industry moved to build a new sixth-generation fighter after FCAS collapsed, with Team Gen 6 seeking political and funding support. Liberia Governance: Liberia’s Governance Commission and Law Reform Commission launched a two-day public dialogue on whether to amend or revise the 1986 constitution.

Middle East Escalation: The U.S. completed new strikes on Iran after Iran downed a U.S. Apache near the Strait of Hormuz, as Trump said peace talks were in the “final stages” but Iran would “pay the price,” while Iran warned it would reassess diplomacy and fired back at U.S. bases in the region. Diplomacy Under Strain: Gulf states and Oman pushed for de-escalation through political and diplomatic efforts, even as the conflict threatened to derail ceasefire momentum. Regional Politics: In Bangladesh, PM Tarique Rahman said reserved-seat women MPs can develop their areas, while Malaysia’s CERMAT MADANI initiative aims to reward safer driving with lower motor premiums. India’s Governance Gap: A new analysis argues India’s cities keep funding visible roads while neglecting buried sewerage and drainage systems, turning sanitation failures into political blind spots. Opposition Coordination: India’s INDIA bloc talks continued as Abhishek Banerjee met Rahul Gandhi amid TMC internal turmoil and speculation over future alliances. Tech & Business: Palantir CEO Alex Karp said enterprises are increasingly unhappy with “frontier” AI labs and want systems that deliver reliable, real-world results. Sports Politics: Iran warned FIFA it could halt matches over unauthorized political displays at the World Cup. Local Elections Watch: Kansas’ Board of Education GOP incumbents stepped aside, setting up contested primaries ahead of November.

Middle East Escalation: Iran launched its first direct strike on Israeli targets, analysts say, after Israeli action in a third country—shattering a fragile ceasefire and raising fears of a wider regional war. Gaza Negotiations: Cairo talks on a Gaza ceasefire are stalled over Hamas disarmament, with weapons the only major sticking point despite progress on other terms. EU/Regional Diplomacy: Georgia, Turkey and Azerbaijan signed a joint declaration after an Istanbul meeting, focusing on regional security and peacekeeping. China-North Korea: Xi Jinping wrapped up a visit to Pyongyang, agreeing with Kim Jong Un to strengthen top-level design and strategic guidance for China-DPRK ties. Sweden Nuclear Policy: Sweden received another state-aid application for a new nuclear project near Gävle, moving the plan into government negotiations and EU review. Kenya Ebola Row: Protests against a proposed U.S.-funded Ebola quarantine facility have turned into a sovereignty and transparency dispute, with court orders to disclose agreement details. Nigeria Elections Prep: Parties are racing to settle post-primary disputes and finalize candidate lists as INEC opens the 2027 nomination portal. Armenia Politics: An election observation mission says Armenia’s vote was politically competitive, while analysts argue the opposition should keep its parliamentary mandates. UK/Scotland Party Fallout: Scotland’s First Minister John Swinney declined to say whether he’ll cooperate with a Westminster inquiry tied to the SNP’s Peter Murrell scandal.

Middle East Escalation: Iran launched its first direct strike on Israeli targets since the April ceasefire framework, hitting the Ramat David airbase with ballistic missiles and signaling it will respond to third-party attacks—raising fears the conflict cycle is shifting into a new phase. U.S.-Regional Posturing: The U.S. carried out a large Syria strike described by analysts as “political theater,” with critics arguing the costly munitions hit cheap rural targets while broader strategy remains constrained. Gaza Mediation: Egypt, Qatar and Türkiye coordinated to break the deadlock in Gaza ceasefire talks and push forward the second phase, amid efforts to preserve the truce and expand humanitarian access. EU-Ukraine Accession: Zelensky expects the EU to open all six negotiation clusters this summer, pressing that Ukraine has met requirements and that Russia must see Europe keeps its promises. Caribbean Kingdom Politics: Curaçao, Aruba and Sint Maarten challenged the Kingdom of the Netherlands’ UN slavery vote abstention and urged deeper consultation within the Kingdom, while a Dutch MP linked to earlier inflammatory remarks drew criticism for minimal engagement at IPKO. Cambodia Sovereignty Message: Hun Sen’s “Waiting Village” naming for displaced families framed the border conflict as a sovereignty claim—rejecting territorial occupation by force without choosing war. South Africa Migration Tensions: Anti-foreigner violence and online mobilization are spreading, with calls for stronger, coherent government action to prevent further deaths and instability.

US Immigration Enforcement Funding: The Senate has passed a $70bn package to keep ICE funded through Trump’s term, with House action expected as Republicans push back on “sanctuary city” claims. Middle East Escalation & Markets: Renewed Iran-Israel fighting is driving oil up again, with traders pricing a higher risk premium and warning that de-escalation may be slow. US–Israel–Iran Diplomacy: Trump says a “total victory” could come in two weeks while warning Netanyahu to halt attacks, even as negotiations drag on. North Korea–China Pivot: Kim Jong Un and Xi Jinping vow a “new chapter” of cooperation across politics, economy, culture and defense, including closer strategic communication. European Protest vs Rearmament: A Brussels rally under “Welfare not Warfare” targets the EU’s rearmament push and planned big increases in military spending. UK Pensions Politics: Labour MPs face growing pressure to change the “triple lock” as critics warn it’s driving up long-term state pension costs. South Asia Governance: India urges UN sanctions on Afghanistan be revised toward incentives, citing changed political realities. Pakistan Security Talks: Zardari and Shehbaz discuss security, budget priorities and regional issues, including Azad Kashmir. Church Scandal in Sri Lanka: Allegations of internal marginalization and politicized appointments inside the Catholic Church reignite debate over fairness. Local UK Debt Pressure: New figures show at least 1.5m people taken to court over unpaid council tax. EU Health Agenda: Cyprus hands the rotating EU Council presidency to Ireland, with Dublin pushing health policy as part of economic competitiveness.**

Yemen Conflict: The assassination of a key anti-Houthi commander, Yahya Abdullah Wuhaysh, has triggered fresh political and military backlash and fears of a wider campaign to weaken the National Resistance’s coastal leadership. Ukraine War: Kyiv says it recaptured nearly 100 sq km more than it lost in May, while Russia rejects European-backed peace initiatives and fighting remains intense in multiple sectors. Ukraine–Russia Talks: A report says the U.S. is considering the Greek Orthodox Patriarch of Jerusalem, Theophilos III, as a mediator, as Washington seeks momentum beyond the battlefield. Middle East Diplomacy: U.S. officials say Lebanon negotiations are set to resume in Washington, while Iran–Israel tensions continue to shape regional ceasefire bargaining. China–North Korea: Xi Jinping arrives in Pyongyang for talks with Kim Jong Un, aiming to deepen ties and clarify China’s role amid U.S. pressure. Regional Cooperation: Azerbaijan and Türkiye reaffirm strategic alliance goals after trilateral foreign-minister talks in Istanbul, with emphasis on diplomacy and ceasefire efforts amid Iran-linked developments. South Asia Labor & Environment: Albania and Egypt discuss sending qualified Egyptian workers, while Nepal pushes climate adaptation and regional environmental cooperation. Domestic Politics & Courts: In Oyo State, abducted school officials deny viral claims of Sharia or ₦1bn ransom, saying captors want a prisoner swap; in Miami, commissioners weigh an $80m Virginia Key marina redevelopment after years of legal fights. Youth & Public Policy: Ireland announces €1.218m to expand volunteer-led youth clubs, and Canada’s online harms bill reportedly targets social media use for kids under 16.

Middle East Escalation: Trump’s “no new wars” line is under strain as he tells NBC he “didn’t guarantee” an end to fighting with Iran, while Israel strikes back across western and central Iran despite US calls for restraint, raising fears the US-Iran track could collapse. US Politics & Elections: Trump abruptly walked out of NBC’s Meet the Press after being pressed for proof behind election-rigging claims, intensifying scrutiny of his campaign narrative. EU Security Focus: EU defence ministers meet in Nicosia with Ukraine set to dominate talks, alongside maritime security and sanctions linked to Iran. China-North Korea: Xi Jinping arrives in Pyongyang for a rare summit with Kim Jong Un, signaling Beijing’s push to reassert influence as ties with both Washington and Moscow evolve. Armenia Vote Count: Armenia’s Civil Contract leads parliamentary elections with 49.81% as the Central Electoral Commission releases preliminary results; Pashinyan declares victory amid opposition complaints. Philippines Senate Turmoil: A flood-control probe over alleged cash “bagmen” linked to Zaldy Co deepens as Sen. Erwin Tulfo signals he may step aside, while a Cayetano bloc disputes new Senate leadership arrangements. Bougainville Status: Papua New Guinea faces renewed pressure over Bougainville’s political future, with independence debates tied to constitutional, security, and state-capacity concerns.

U.S.-Iran War Diplomacy: Trump told NBC he won’t unfreeze Iranian assets before a deal, but says Washington will retrieve and destroy Iran’s enriched uranium “with them or without them,” insisting Space Force monitoring can track the material and warning troops will stay “until completion.” Middle East Escalation: Despite ceasefire talks, Israel hit Beirut’s southern suburbs; Trump also urged “more surgical” strikes against Hezbollah while Iran warned of retaliation and accused the U.S. of enabling attacks. U.S. Domestic Politics: Trump walked out of “Meet the Press” after Kristen Welker challenged his claims about California elections being “rigged,” and he sparred over a proposed $1.8 billion “anti-weaponization” fund. Legal Fight in Washington: A lawsuit seeks to block a UFC event on the White House South Lawn for Trump’s 80th birthday, arguing it violates park rules and lacked environmental review. South Asia Elections: Pakistan-administered Kashmir’s top court upheld refugee-reserved assembly seats, clearing the way for next month’s vote amid protests. China-North Korea: Xi’s rare Pyongyang visit is set to test whether Beijing is signaling renewed influence as denuclearization talk remains uncertain.

Philippines Senate deadlock: Acting Senate President Sherwin Gatchalian says he hasn’t yet asked President Marcos Jr. for a special session, as gridlock keeps up the delay on confirming five AFP generals and other pending items. Impeachment trial logistics: House prosecutors say the Senate leadership fight is “extraneous” to VP Sara Duterte’s July 6 impeachment trial, arguing the case will proceed based on votes and evidence. Kosovo election reset: Kosovo holds its third parliamentary election in 16 months after parties failed to agree on a new president, with PM Albin Kurti’s Vetevendosje seen as the favorite but needing broader consensus to break the cycle. South Africa migration unrest: The government insists there will be no “shutdown” ahead of a June 30 deadline for undocumented foreigners to leave, as anti-illegal immigration protests raise tensions. US GOP fractures over Iran: Republicans in Congress are increasingly rebuking Trump’s Iran strategy and related funding, signaling a wider internal split as midterms approach. Armenia votes: Polling begins for Armenia’s parliamentary election, with nearly 2.5 million eligible voters and a 4% threshold for parties. Pakistan-Iran talks: Pakistan’s interior minister arrives in Tehran for high-level discussions tied to mediation efforts with the US and border security coordination. India opposition rift: CPI(M) dismisses Congress claims of a BJP deal and seeks decorum ahead of INDIA bloc talks, as West Bengal politics shifts after Mamata Banerjee’s TMC loss. Gilgit-Baltistan elections: Voting starts for 24 assembly seats amid tight security, with hundreds of candidates contesting and a large voter roll.

Philippines Senate Power Struggle: A House justice leader floated a special session to keep an impeachment timeline moving amid a leadership impasse between Senate President Pro Tempore Alan Peter Cayetano and Acting Senate President Sherwin Gatchalian. South Korea Local Election Fallout: Thousands protested in Seoul after ballot shortages disrupted local elections, with officials saying papers ran out at dozens of polling stations and voting paused at others. U.S. Immigration & Courts: A federal judge blocked Trump-era restrictions on legal immigration for nationals of 39 countries, calling the curbs unlawful and leaving people in legal limbo. U.S. Immigration Funding: The Senate approved a nearly $70B package to fund immigration enforcement and deportation efforts, despite Democratic objections. Trump Legal & Political Moves: Trump nominated acting DOJ chief Todd Blanche for the permanent attorney general role and pardoned former Rep. Stephen Buyer, convicted of insider trading. Iran Mediation Push: Pakistan’s interior minister visited Tehran with “new proposals” tied to efforts to break the US-Iran stalemate. Peru Runoff: Peru’s leftist Roberto Sanchez urged “respectful” ties with Trump ahead of a tight presidential runoff against Keiko Fujimori, as security concerns dominate voter focus. Albania Protest: Hundreds rallied against a luxury beach resort project linked to the Trump family, citing damage to a protected lagoon. India Regional Politics: Assam backed a Rs 500 crore plan to develop Dibrugarh as a second capital, while Gilgit-Baltistan votes in delayed legislative assembly elections across 24 constituencies.

Iran–US Tensions: Trump played down the latest Iran conflict as US forces intercepted a missile barrage toward the Strait of Hormuz, while Washington keeps pressing for a deal. Ukraine Diplomacy: Trump said Kyiv and Moscow can negotiate independently without direct US mediation, after Zelensky floated a face-to-face proposal with Putin. US Politics & Justice: Trump pardoned former Indiana congressman Stephen Buyer, adding to a fresh wave of clemency decisions. Immigration Enforcement: The US Senate approved a $70bn Homeland Security boost for immigration enforcement, moving to the House. AI Governance: Trump signed an executive order creating a voluntary federal AI review framework and talks about possible government stakes in AI firms. South Korea Elections: Opposition leaders demanded investigations after ballot shortages in Seoul local elections. Armenia & Kosovo: Armenia heads into parliamentary voting with EU-Russia balancing at stake, while Kosovo faces a third election in 18 months amid EU integration pressure. India Economy & Politics: Modi and Defence Minister Singh touted 7.7% growth, while a Congress MLA attacked the figures as manipulated. Malawi Anti-Corruption: Malawi’s government defended extending the ACB director’s contract amid scrutiny. Prisons & Heat: South Korea defended spending on air conditioning in prison corridors after backlash. Local Governance: California’s primary vote count continues with millions of ballots processed but major races still incomplete.