Berkeley report warns US auto industry could lose out to Chinese EV makers

By AI, Created 5:06 PM UTC, May 18, 2026, /AGP/ – A new UC Berkeley report says Washington risks handing the electric vehicle transition to China if it trades away U.S. market access in near-term talks. The report argues a different federal industrial plan could create 1.46 million jobs, protect Detroit and speed the shift to cheaper EVs.

Why it matters: - The report says the outcome of U.S. policy now will shape who controls the next generation of transportation technology. - UC Berkeley’s Center for Environmental Public Policy warns that opening the U.S. market to Chinese automakers could cost 99,000 manufacturing jobs by 2040. - The report says a competing federal strategy could create 1.46 million jobs and strengthen the domestic auto sector. - The analysis lands as President Trump meets Xi Jinping in Beijing and auto access could become part of broader trade talks.

What happened: - The Center for Environmental Public Policy at UC Berkeley released a new report on the global EV race and the position of the U.S. auto industry. - Lead author Harry Martin said the summit in Beijing could put the future of the American auto industry on the negotiating table. - The report argues that Chinese EV makers are moving faster with lower costs and stronger government backing than U.S. rivals.

The details: - Chinese automakers are producing EVs 25% to 30% cheaper than international rivals, the report says. - Chinese brands held more than 32% of the global passenger EV market in 2025. - The U.S. Big Three held 5% of that market, according to the report. - Nearly 100,000 EV manufacturing jobs across U.S. states are said to be at risk. - The report says the rollback of federal EV tax credits and vehicle emissions standards has left U.S. firms in a policy penalty box. - U.S. EV asset write-downs have reached $51.5 billion, the report says. - Chinese EV manufacturers are also expanding into Mexico and Canada, raising the risk of deeper North American market pressure. - The report says U.S. gas prices reached $4.54 per gallon amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, the highest since the COVID-19 pandemic. - The report links those higher fuel prices to stronger consumer interest in affordable EVs.

Between the lines: - The report frames the EV fight as a geopolitical competition, not just an industrial one. - Its warning is that short-term trade concessions could lock the U.S. into a weaker role while China gains scale and market share. - The proposed policy package is designed to answer both supply-side cost gaps and consumer demand.

What’s next: - The report calls for $156 billion in federal action under a “MIRACLE” policy gameplan. - The plan would restore the $7,500 EV tax credit through 2036 for domestically produced vehicles. - It would also extend a $2,500 used-EV credit for lower-income buyers. - The plan includes $4 billion for charging infrastructure and grid capacity. - It would create a $100 billion matched public-private R&D fund and an allied consortium to cut EV and component costs. - It would offer a 30% investment tax credit and a $3 billion federal credit facility to support new U.S. factories. - The plan calls for a multilateral reciprocal auto compact with India, the EU, Japan and other allies to expand export markets. - It would also create a $4 billion workforce transition fund for displaced internal combustion engine workers.

The bottom line: - The report says Washington faces a choice between ceding the EV transition to China or using federal policy to rebuild U.S. auto competitiveness, protect jobs and lower consumer costs.